Showing posts with label statistics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label statistics. Show all posts

Tuesday, 4 November 2014

We are in the midst of a statistical revolution

This blog, by Donato Speroni , looks at how two important conferences  sum up ten years of work in this area.  

“We have to find a new narrative that goes beyond the Beyond GDP research” 


This sentence by Enrico Giovannini, in his key note speech at theMoving beyond GDP in European economic governance” expert conference in Brussels on 10 October, summarises the state of the art. We have the well-being indicators, developed at national and international level in the last ten years; we are in the midst of a “statistical revolution” that will give us new instruments to measure progress and compare it between nations; but all this formidable data sets will be of limited use if it is not transferred into new political goals. Yes, but which goals?

In theory, we know what we want: that the economy continues to grow, but that growth should be inclusive (leaving no one behind) and sustainable (without compromising the ability of future generations to have a better future). But is this really possible?

Two visions clashed in the Brussels conference, captured in the strategic moment of the passing of the baton between the old and the new European Commission. The first view, more optimistic, believes in the effective possibility of promoting a sustainable and inclusive growth to ensure the well-being of citizens.

The second, more drastic view, thinks that in Europe the time for growth is over and supports a more rapid and dramatic change in lifestyle and investments. Through this discussion, the search for new statistical parameters has stimulated political debate on the vital issue of the European contribution to a better world.


Provided by the BRAINPOol project


It is clear that "to pursue a sustainable and inclusive growth" or "to change the development model" involve alternative policy priorities, different numerical targets and indicators. For example, if the goal of sustainable growth can be achieved with a gradual change (along with many other interventions) from fossil fuels to renewables, the alternative strategy requires a faster innovation in the pattern of development and results in accelerated efforts to change both the energy mix and the level of energy consumption. Very briefly, on the one hand we have a gradual reformism, on the other hand a revolution; it is clear that these processes cannot be measured with the same parameters, because it is not just a problem of quantity indicators, but also of different goals.


"Growth is structurally disappearing from the European Union?"


Even if we do not endorse Serge Latouche’s “Happy degrowth” theory, we need to know which results are realistically achievable in the situation we will have to face in the next few years. Tony Long of WWF presented at the Brussels conference an elaboration on the average growth in France over the past decades, which shows increasingly poor results. In his view, the new European Commission should initiate long-term macro-economic analysis, to answer the question: "Growth is structurally disappearing from the European Union?" The relationship between employment and technology is another important question to which we are unable to respond. Co-President of the Club of Rome Anders Wijkman pointed out that up to ten years ago productivity and employment grew in parallel, but now the productivity improvements have no longer a positive impact on jobs.

For many people, however, "growth is like a religion," said the Belgian Philippe Lamberts (Member of European Parliament, Green). "Many people are not willing to accept the facts (for instance about climate change) because they live in their own world". On the other hand, as pointed out the same Wijkman, even those who are convinced of the need for change are not in a position to express a narrative of transition: there is no comprehensive proposal on how to move from the existing mechanisms into a system actually more sustainable and inclusive: we have a collection of good intentions but few effective decisions and measurable effects.

The uncertain outcome of this process derives also from the fact that the European economic crisis puts us in uncharted territory, as it become evident in another conference -  the Strategic Forum 2014 on Intragenerational and Intergenerational Sustainability, organised by the International Economic Association (IEA) and the International Statistical Institute (ISI), together with the  “High-Level Expert Group on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress” (that is, the working group hosted by the OECD and commonly called "Stiglitz 2"), supported by the Bank of Italy, the Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF)  and SAS, that was held in Rome on September 23 and 24. 

Many of the documents, downloadable from the Forum programme, can help us to understand what is happening in Europe. In a series of very interesting slides, Martine Durand from OECD showed the long-term costs of the recession: even in countries that, on the basis of 2013 data, seemed to have passed the crisis, the conditions of households and the level of investment have not returned to pre-crisis levels. Not to mention the social effects of the lack of confidence in governments and the decrease in the level of satisfaction with life, especially noticeable in the country’s most in need such as Greece and Italy.

From the meeting emerged a stronger concern for sustainability. The social one first, which reflects a situation perhaps even more dangerous than environmental sustainability, for there are many signs that we are heading towards an explosive world (the "perfect storm"). Not only because of the conflicts that already afflict countries in Europe or those geographically close to us, but for the internal contradictions in our economic system: the lack of an adequate safeguard for human capital; the growth of unemployment induced by new technologies that cannot be underestimated and that shrinks the middle class; the frightening increase in inequality in our systems: all issues that go beyond the everlasting controversy about the limits of the public budgets.

It is not even enough to advocate greater investments in schools, because we must first understand what types of schools can prepare young people to find a satisfactory role in this new world, as pointed out by the governor of the Bank of Italy, Ignazio Visco with a short but effective intervention.

In conclusion, I think that the work done by statisticians and economists in these ten years gave us the tools to build a better world, with more inclusive and sustainable well-being for all. But now we need a vision: we have to decide which world we want, to realistically consider the limits of growth, and how we can build it.



Donato Speroni
@dospe

Monday, 21 April 2014

Why engage citizens in wellbeing data?


This blog by Salema Gulbahar leads up to the Wikiprogress online discussion on engaging citizens in well-being and progress statistics. This post explores why we should engage citizen in well-being data and how this is being done.

Are we measuring the right things?

Are our lives getting better? Data and statistics for measuring well-being and progress should answer these questions and enable us to understand what drives the well-being of people and nations and what needs to be done in order to achieve greater progress for all.

“Give citizens the wellbeing data they need,” says the ‘Policy and Wellbeing report commissioned by the Legatum Institute, as better data on well-being can increase peoples choices and ability to make an informed choice. When young people make a choice about their career path or a job, they know what they can earn and what they have to do. Wouldn’t it be nice if they had data on how that job may impact their well-being?

If citizens, governments, schools and employers had better data on progress and well-being and used this data, then decisions made about which services to fund, cut and develop would be different. For example, governments would focus on the rehabilitation of prisoners and not on long prison sentences.

Enabling and engaging citizens in well-being data will allow society as a whole to make more informed decisions and ensure that we measure what matters!




How can citizens get involved?

Citizen engagement in well-being data can range from citizens being actively engaged in a) politics and policy making where they can influence the agenda and what is measured, b) the feedback loop of services they are using via questionnaires, and c) being active user and producers of information and data via simple mobile applications. Below are a few examples:

The Santa Monica Wellbeing Project (video above) in California is a city-wide initiative which engages its citizen in well-being data, throughout the life cycle of the project by i) defining well-being as it relates to the community, ii) creating a new tool to measure well-being in the community and iii) working with the entire community to actively improve the conditions needed for people to thrive.

In 2013, a 'friends and family test' was introduced by National Health Service in the United Kingdom where patients were asked within 48 hours of using a service if they would ‘recommend this service to friends and family’. Improvements in services can been seen over time and citizens feel more empowered, as well. Results are now available.

Three of my neighbours were burgled over a few days, whilst they slept in their homes. I found out when the third and last victim decided to post a little note on everyone’s door. So when I read about the United Sates www.crimemapping.com and the mobile application which allows law enforcement agencies and citizens to provide real time data on crime, I could see how this tool would make a real difference to my well-being.

Citizen engagement has the potential to drive the demand, supply and use of well-being and progress data and statistics. Governments, employers and schools can enhance the well-being of citizens by providing them with information about the relationship between everyday choices and subjective well-being.

Find out more and ensure your voice is heard by participating in the discussion (details below).

Salema Gulbahar
Wikiprogress Coordinator

_______________________________________________________________________________
Wikiprogress and partners invite you to participate in an online discussion from 22 – 30 April 




  • How can citizen engagement improve the development and use of well-being and progress statistics?
  • Do you have any examples of good practice in citizen engagement in well-being and progress statistics?
  • What role can technology - such as mobile apps or interactive web platforms - play in improving citizen engagement with well-being and progress statistics?



To leave a comment, click here and scroll to the section entitled “Contribute!”


Here is the short link to the page: http://bit.ly/1itMg6L
Follow the Twitter hashtag #CitizenEngagement and #StatsForAll

You may contact us or send comments via:

Thursday, 14 February 2013

Poor numbers are not sexy…






The issue of statistical capacity building in developing countries is actually becoming a sexy issue. I can’t believe I am saying this. Though, we can ask Hal Varian for his opinion on that here.
As Wikiprogress is a community with several networks looking for better indicators of well-being, I think that we need to recognise something before we go any further.

There is a crisis of official data production

Recent discussions at the OECD with Paris 21 (see snazzy new website here) and around the world here are really bringing this issue to the forefront.  However, in Bill Gates’ 2013 letter he says on page 1:

“In the past year I have been struck again and again by how important measurement is to improving the human condition. You can achieve amazing progress if you set a clear goal and find a measure that will drive progress toward that goal—in a feedback loop”. 

Well, that is proving to be difficult….

I recently read Morten Jerven's new book Poor Numbers which is an analysis of the production and use of African economic development statistics. Jerven’s research shows how the statistical capacities of sub-Saharan African economies have fallen into disarray. He reports that the numbers substantially misstate the actual state of affairs. As a result, scarce resources are misapplied. Development policy does not deliver the benefits expected. Policymakers’ attempts to improve the lives of the citizenry are frustrated. Donors have no accurate sense of the impact of the aid they supply. The book outlines that statistics tell us less about African development then we would like to think. He says that the main problem is a lack of investment in statistics production. Jerven gives the Zambia example where there is one person working in all of national accounts.

That isn’t very sexy.

New demands but where is the supply?

With the rather intense debates around the post-2015 framework, it is hard to believe that producing good numbers isn’t a bigger focus of the chatter. There is more pressure being placed on the NSOs for quality data but there doesn’t seem be a strong push to raise the capacity of these offices. Developing countries faced with the buzz word “evidence based policy” are feeling the squeeze in that policies cannot be made or monitored without good data.

This isn’t a developing country phenomenon. OECD countries are also looking at ways to meet new (and expensive) demands. Data coming from sources like Google and others are beginning to compete with the NSOs because they can produce data that is timelier. In this world of instant this and instant that, people will not wait 5 years for the next survey result. 

Solutions include:
  • invest more money in producing high quality statistics (i.e. make it a priority)
  • NSOs should work with other producers of statistics in public private partnerships
  • international goals such as the post-2015 framework should have a goal for statistical quality.
  • involve citizens and local perspectives in the production process
I recommend reading Jergen's book which is chock full of history and recommendations.  Follow the Paris 21 website for more on this topic as well. I also welcome your views on this blog.

Angela Hariche


Image from http://www.freeimages.co.uk/index.htm

Tuesday, 15 January 2013

You spoke, we listened - Measures of Australia's Progress Consultation

Since the Australian Bureau of Statistics first published Measures of Australia's Progress (MAP) in 2002, it has been bringing together a large range of statistics about Australia’s society, economy and environment to help give an insight into our national progress and ask the question - 'Is life in Australia getting better?'.
The statistics are put into social, economic and environmental domains to best display whether progress or regress is being made as a whole and allows for each domain to be considered side by side.
Given the explosion of interest in international and domestic activity occurring in measuring progress, the ABS considered it was timely to review whether MAP is still measuring the aspects of life that matter most to Australians. To do this, the ABS has undertaken the largest, broad-ranging consultation in the agency's history.  In a nut shell,  for the last two years the MAP Consultation has been asking Australians, 'What is important to you for your nation's progress?'

On November 20, 2012 Measures of Australia’s Progress - aspirations for our nation: a conversation with Australians about progress’ was released. This report provides a full and transparent account of the aspirations that Australians told us were important to them for progress.

What Australians want

From what people told us, we found that ideas of what progress is have changed since we first set out to measure it in 2002. We also found that there is a gap in the current picture of progress, particularly in the areas of the built environment and other aspects that enrich people's lives.  Many people strongly endorsed the area of Governance as a fourth MAP domain, which echoes the international trend to give greater focus to measuring progress in things such as human rights and having a political voice. People also wanted more statistics to be broken down by population groups and geographic areas.

The people we spoke to provided many new and interesting aspirations for Australia's progress. Many Australians feel that having equal opportunity or a fair go is an essential element for progress, as are other aspects that enrich people's lives such as recreation, sport, popular culture and the arts. The consultation also revealed that Australians think that having a say in the decision making that affects their lives, and having institutions that are accountable for their decisions, are crucial for progress.





This word cloud represents the range of ideas expressed during the MAP consultation.  The size of the words represent how often they were raised.



So, where to next?

We will be using the aspirations from the consultation to refresh the existing MAP indicators and release a new version of MAP in late 2013. We are also planning on giving the 2013 release a brand new look, ensuring it's easy to use and retaining MAP's 'at a glance' view of national progress. We also want to clearly communicate the stories behind the statistics, and allow users to directly access data they are interested in. Take a look at the mock-ups on BetaWorks and let us know if you like the new layout and functionality.

We'll also plan to include infographics and videos in MAP 2013, so you can easily get the top progress stories fast! Check out our example demo video to find out more!



Hannah Wetzler

Social Analyst

Social and Progress Reporting  |  Population Labour and Social Statistics  |  Australian Bureau of Statistics

Thursday, 27 October 2011

How's Life?

By Romina Boarini

How’s Life? This is the (seemingly) simple question that the OECD put at the centre of its recent work on measuring well-being, launched on October 12 during the conference marking the two years of the Stiglitz-Sen-Fitoussi’s report (see also recent Angela’s post). How’s life talks of what people value most in their lives, what they can do, what they are and what they would like to be. Those who associate the OECD with economic forecasts and free market policies may find surprising that the OECD takes the well-being business so seriously, especially in hard economic times. But since the Organisation is seeking to inspire Better Policies for Better Lives, assessing how life is going and how it can be improved is just as fundamental as looking at financial markets and public debt.

As you readers of Wikiprogress all know, the OECD has been long involved in the quest for better measures of well-being and progress. But this is the first time that the OECD puts together many comparable indicators of well-being in OECD and a few emerging countries. How’s Life analyses well-being through eleven dimensions of people’s lives (income, jobs, housing, health, work and life balance, education, social connections, civic engagement, environment, personal security and subjective well-being), presenting a large amount of evidence on these areas. It also looks at the quality of existing well-being measures and proposes a few avenues for taking the statistical and research agenda on well-being forward.

The main findings from How’s Life are:

Well-being is much more than money. This is where we started from but this is also where we arrived at the end of the journey. How’s Life shows that economic measures are not enough to capture the complexity and the beauty of life, but also the struggle that life represents for many. Income is important for well-being, but there are other aspects, for instance social ties, opportunities and freedoms, that count even more.

Understanding well-being has a lot to do with inequalities. We already knew that averages are not enough for assessing economic well-being because income inequality is large in many countries. What we did not know, and How’s Life tells us, is that there are also many inequalities in health, education, civic engagement, social ties and environment. Many of these inequalities are driven by low-income and low-education, suggesting that nurturing children from early years can greatly make their adult life better.

Well-being is both objective and subjective. There are components of well-being that are essentially objective: having a decent housing and being healthy for instance. But there are also very important subjective aspects to take into account: for instance whether people like their jobs, whether they feel insecure in the neighboourhood where they live, etc. How’s Life shows that there are sometimes gaps between objective life circumstances and how people feel about them: for instance there are 10 insecure people per every victim of crime in the population. Gaps do not indicate that some indicators are more reliable than others. They just indicate that these various indicators are capturing different aspects of personal security and that it is important for policy makers to address criminality and concerns of crime at the same time.

How’s Life finds that well-being is not only individualistic, i.e. depending on what people have and do for themselves. It is also very much about spending time with others, helping others, building a community and feeling part of a large social network that can help in case of need. For instance life satisfaction goes up significantly when volunteering or when enjoying strong social ties.

Finally, How’s Life shows that no country excels in all dimensions (and this is also why it is important to look at all facets of people’s lives rather than at one headline number). There are however countries that tend to do very well in many of the dimensions considered, for instance Australia, Canada and the Nordic countries. Why is that? Two factors seem to matter: inequalities and the key role that well-being plays in the overall political strategy of these countries. Indeed, inequalities tend to be lower in the top-performing countries, especially among the Nordics, suggesting that a more equal distribution of opportunities and outcomes is also beneficial for average well-being. Secondly, many of the well-performing countries have adopted a broad well-being framework for designing their policies (see for instance Australia Treasury’s well-being framework and Norway’s sustainable development strategy). Their strategy is paying off.

What’s next? The second edition of How’s Life is planned for May 2013. In the meantime we will update the Better Life Index, the other big pillar of the OECD Better Life Initiative. We are also running various research projects to get better measures and understanding of well-being, together with many other international organisations and researchers worldwide. You can learn more about in our web site.

Tuesday, 2 August 2011

Free the analysis! New Policy at the Center for Global Development

The World Bank freed their data last year because data is a public good. Now, the Center for Global Development (CGD) is taking this one step further. Freeing the analysis.

The Center for Global Development is, in my humble opinion, a place where the envelope is pushed. Not only does CGD provide high quality analysis but now they will also publish the code and the data (with some exceptions) behind that analysis so that anyone can come in, replicate the process and check the quality. They admit that this is a rather uncomfortable process as nobody likes to have their long hard published work corrected in the public domain.

However, they have seen the need to put themselves out there for public debate with the knowledge that there are bugs in analysis and they want them caught. Clearly, they would also like to set a precedent.

Admirable indeed. We here at Wikiprogess are impressed.

These are some of the benefits that transparency allows according to their policy:

• It makes analysis more credible.

• It makes CGD more credible when it calls on other organizations, such as aid agencies, to be transparent.

• Data and code are additional content, appreciated by certain audiences.

• Increases citation of CGD publications—by people using associated data sets.

• It curates, saving work that otherwise tends to get lost as the staff turns over.

• Preparing code and data for public sharing improves the quality of research: researchers find bugs.

• In short term, CGD’s leadership in transparency will differentiate it from its peers. In the long term (one hopes), CGD’s leadership will raise standards elsewhere.

See full policy here.

Angela

Friday, 11 March 2011

A technocratic solution to a spiritual question


From guest blogger Jules Evans. This post originally appeared on The Politics of Well-being.

There is a danger that we have become not just trapped in the ‘prison of GDP’, but trapped in the prison of statistics. We have become trapped in the idea that something can only be a serious goal if we can quantify it, measure it, and track our progress towards it on a neat Power Point graph. And we want to use this approach to cure our spiritual malaise. We want a technocratic solution to a spiritual question.

The argument often put forward as to why governments should start to measure well-being is that it will free us from what one British minister calls “the prison of GDP”. We have become ‘trapped’, it is said, in narrow and overly-reductive economic measurements, which don’t capture what truly matters to us. The solution to this, we are told, is to measure what does matter to us: positive emotion, social relations, well-being. But can one really measure well-being? First of all, you need to define it.

Charles Seaford, co-head of the Centre for Well-Being at the new economics foundation in London, said recently that the high-level British policy debate over how to define well-being divided into two camps: the Benthamites and the Aristotelians. The Benthamites, followers of the Utilitarian philosopher Jeremy Bentham, define well-being as ‘feeling good’, and want to measure it by asking the nation how they feel. The Aristotelians, followers of the 4th century Greek philosopher, define well-being as ‘optimal human functioning’, or what Aristotle calledeudaimonia. They want to measure it by asking the nation how autonomous they feel, how socially engaged, how fulfilled, and so on.

The Benthamite approach

I have several problems with the Benthamite or Hedonic approach, of defining well-being as merely ‘feeling good’. Briefly, because others have made these criticisms at greater length and in better prose:

It is overly-simplistic. The Benthamite approach suggests that happiness is one single, homogeneous experience, and that instances of it differ only in intensity and duration. Only statisticians could believe this. This belief displays, in the words of John Stuart Mill, “the empiricism of one who has not experienced very much”. It tries to take the many multi-faceted, multi-cultural, nuanced and subtle experiences of well-being and reduce them to one experience, that can be measured in one question - ‘how happy are you on a ten-point scale?’ Because it’s a bounded scale, people will typically reply ‘about a seven’. Their general levels of well-being may rise over time, but they will still typically reply ‘about a seven’, because they will adapt to their higher levels of well-being. That’s why happiness levels have not risen in the last 30 years - not because our society is broken, but because the method of measuring happiness is limited and cannot reflect absolute rises.

It is vulgar. Bentham, Mill said, suffered from a “deficiency of imagination”. So do his followers. Bentham insisted that only things that make us feel pleasant are worthwhile, therefore ‘pushpin is better than poetry’, because pushpin, a trivial parlour game, creates more pleasant feelings in the masses than poetry. He had no sense that some types of happiness are higher and better than others, and so we should be educated to appreciate them. He also didn’t appreciate that some worthwhile experiences - like watching a tragedy - will actually make us feel sad. The best arts - Shakespeare, Sophocles, The Sopranos - connect us to the full range of human experience, the dark as well as the light.

Utilitarianism, by contrast, tries to turn everything into a moronic happy face. Imagine a TV show or a novel where everyone was happy all the time. It would be unbearably boring.

It fails to recognize the appropriateness of negative emotions. Nature gave us a range of emotional experiences for a reason. Sometimes, it is appropriate to be sad, or angry, or disappointed, or restless. Deifying one feeling is counter-productive, and reduces the rich complexity of life.

It is self-absorbed and anti-civic. Utilitarians think that, if ‘feeling good’ is made the goal of society, everyone will naturally work for other people’s happiness. But why should they? ‘Because it will make them feel good’. But what if it doesn’t? What if visiting my sick mother in hospital actually makes me feel bad? What argument can a Utilitarian make in that instance? Our own pleasant feelings are not a strong and lasting enough guide for sustained moral and civic behaviour.

It is ignoble. If the goal of life, and the goal of society, is simply ‘pleasant feelings’, then why shouldn’t the government give every citizen a ration of MDMA or Prozac, to lift the general level of good feelings? The reason we dislike that idea, is because we recognize there is more to life than ‘bovine contentment’. We don’t want just to feel good. We want lives of genuinely rich activity, engagement, striving, achievement and fulfillment. Feeling good is the bonus to those experiences - it shouldn’t be the goal itself. In fact, an important part of the striving life is moments of dissatisfaction and restlessness. Those emotions have their place in human experience.


What about the Aristotelian approach?

I have more respect for the Aristotelian approach. It captures the fact that human well-being is (in my opinion) about more than simply feeling good. Rather, the ‘feeling good’ is a consequence of fulfilling certain human drives or needs: the need for social engagement, for meaning and purpose, for autonomy, for creativity, and so on. But can we empirically measure this more nuanced and multi-faceted idea of eudaimonia?

Yes, say the Neo-Aristotelians. They include the economist Amartya Sen and the philosopher Martha Nussbaum, who have come up with a ‘capabilities approach’ to human flourishing, which defines ten core human capabilities. Sen and Nussbaum claim that statisticians can measure the extent to which a society enables a person to fulfill those capabilities.

Another, related approach uses the Self-Determination Theory of Edward Deci and Richard Ryan. Deci and Ryan say that humans have three core needs or drives: the need for autonomy, social connectedness, and mastery. And again, they insist that statisticians can measure the extent to which an individual or a group has achieved fulfillment in these areas. Their approach has been very influential for the new economics foundation (nef), which describes it as “a modernised, empirically-based version of Aristotle’s theory of eudaimonia.”

And finally, Martin Seligman, inventor of Positive Psychology, also insists that well-being is a multi-faceted experience, which he separates into four domains: hedonic happiness, engaged happiness, achieving happiness and meaningful happiness, each of which can be empirically measured, he insists.


Measuring
eudaimonia

So the Neo-Aristotelians insist that eudaimonia can be measured, just like the Benthamites’ more simplistic idea of happiness. But are they right? Let’s start with Deci and Ryan’s Self-Determination Theory, which has been taken up by the new economics foundation (nef). There’s a lot to like about the theory. It has defined eudaimonia as the fulfillment of three core needs: autonomy, mastery, and social connectedness. But SDT leaves out something pretty fundamental to Aristotle’s idea of eudaimonia: virtue. Aristotle said that happiness is “an activity of the soul in accordance with virtue”. But there’s no mention of virtue in SDT, or in nef’s approach.

One can imagine a person who feels a deep sense of autonomy, mastery and social connectedness, but who is nevertheless morally rotten. A Nazi party functionary in 1930s Germany might feel autonomy, mastery and social connectedness, but we might still insist there was something lacking in their well-being, namely, sound morality. But you can’t measure the soundness of a person’s moral beliefs empirically or scientifically.

Nussbaum and Sen try to introduce some moral capacity into their ten core capabilities. The capabilities include the capacity for emotion - feeling appropriate emotions and attachments - and also the capacity for ‘practical reasoning about the Good’. But can you really scientifically measure the extent to which a person feels appropriate emotion? That involves a subjective moral judgement about what emotions are appropriate, and an Aristotelian would give a different answer to, say, a Stoic, or a Buddhist, or a Freudian, or a Methodist. Again, you can’t measure this empirically and scientifically, because it’s a question of moral belief.

Likewise, you might be able to test a person’s capacity for practical reasoning about the Good, in a philosophy exam for example. But I really don’t see how such a test could be applied to an entire country without being utterly simplistic. And, to really test a person’s level ofeudaimonia, you’d need to see not just how well they can reason about the Good, but how well they actually follow their reasoning and translate it into their lives. How could you test that empirically for an individual, let alone for a nation?

Martin Seligman, finally, insists that science can empirically measure both hedonic happiness, and engaged happiness (or ‘flow’) and meaningful happiness. Perhaps science can measure how good someone feels at a particular moment, but to rely just on hedonic measurements is “morally and politically imprisoning”, he says. I agree. But can science measure engaged happiness and meaningful happiness?

You can measure the extent to which a person is absorbed in an activity. But it is easy to imagine instances where a person is completely absorbed in an activity that is nonetheless unhealthy and toxic - a heroin addict is utterly absorbed in their addiction, for example, as is a video game addict. We have to make some moral judgement about the worth of the activity one is engaged in. A person might dedicate their lives to a novel for example. But is that a worthwhile activity, if they are working on a very bad novel? And one can also easily imagine many instances where a person’s obsession makes their life very unbalanced and myopic. Isn’t an important part of well-being having a balanced life of various different pursuits and fulfillments?

Secondly, Seligman defines meaningful happiness as ‘the feeling of working together with others to serve a higher cause’. But doesn’t a great deal depend on the moral worth of the cause you are serving? You could be marching for the civil rights of minorities, or you could be marching against them with the Ku Klux Klan. Both marchers would feel a sense of meaning, purpose and social engagement -but to decide which of these people is experiencing genuine well-being, we’d need to move beyond empirical measurements of their feelings and make moral judgements about the cause they are serving.

Seligman thinks we can assess how ‘meaningful’ a life is by empirically assessing a person’s own judgement, their friends’ judgements, and ‘some objective societal measure’. But assessing all the tangible and intangible impacts of a person’s life would take a God, not a statistician. To truly weigh up the meaning of a person’s life, you’d have to look centuries into the future after their death...and you’d have to have some idea of what, if anything, awaits humans in the afterlife. Science and statistics can’t tell us anything about our fate after death, which means there is a vast area of uncertainty at the heart of the ‘science of well-being’.

For most humans around the world, personal assessments of our life’s meaning involves beliefs about God and the after-life. Aristotle, Socrates,Plato, the Stoics - they all thought that the ‘purpose’ of man was to contemplate God and serve God. But the Neo-Aristotelian science of functioning tries to cut out this idea of man’s divine purpose, because statistics can’t measure the existence of God. So man, in modern functioning theory, doesn’t really have a function. ‘Man’s function is to fulfill human needs’. But what is the point of that?


The limits of empiricism

There is a danger that we have become not just trapped in the ‘prison of GDP’, but trapped in the prison of statistics. Statistics are the foundation of modern government. They are the cornerstone of the modern faith in the power of technocrats and bureaucrats to control nature, mitigate risk, and make life better. We are realizing now that one can become trapped in statistics, that they can distort and mislead. But our panacea for this sickness is....more statistics.

We have become trapped in the idea that something can only be a serious goal if we can quantify it, measure it, and track our progress towards it on a neat Power Point graph. This is the sacred belief at the heart of our technocratic societies. And we want to use this approach to cure our spiritual malaise. We want a technocratic solution to a spiritual problem.

But it’s just not that simple, sadly. We can’t just clear up the uncertainty and suffering of life with a Power Point presentation, rapturously as such a presentation would be received at TED talks and in the halls of power. There can never be a science of well-being because science can never prove what the purpose of life is, or if it has a purpose, partly because it can never prove what happens after death. Science can measure the quantifiable, but not everything can be reduced to a number. Could you put a number on how much you love your child?

Of course, no one wants a world of rampant moral relativism. I also would like to believe that there is such a thing as a good life, that some lives are better-lived than others. And I recognize that science can help us a great deal in our search for good lives. But, in the words of Aristotle, we should look for precision in such matters “only so far as the subject admits”.

The dangerous unintended consequence of this search for a perfect ‘science of happiness’, this search for ‘facts’ about well-being as opposed to ‘beliefs’, is that the ‘happiness science’ becomes a dogma - with governments telling their citizens ‘this is the way to happiness, and you should follow it’. Governments can of course make moral arguments to their citizens. But I don’t think they can say they have scientifically proven that their model of life is the best - because there is a limit to what can be measured and tested scientifically. And insisting that there is a ‘science of happiness’ takes the search for happiness out of the hands of the individual and puts it in the hands of ‘happiness experts’. Part of the Good Life is finding the Good Life for myself, not simply following some instant happiness recipe handed out by the ministry of happiness.

The constant repetition of the phrase ‘science of happiness’ is in danger of giving the public the impression that science has, or ever could, clear up the question of the meaning of life once and for all. Such is the eagerness of psychologists, economists and policy-makers to affect public policy and win funding, that exalted and inflated claims for this young field are being made in the media, conferences and policy meetings.

But if the politics of well-being is going to be more than a passing fad, if it is going to be legitimate in the eyes of the public and of posterity, then we need to be more humble and more honest, and to admit the limits of our certainty and empirical ability. Socrates suggested that wisdom consists in admitting the limits of our knowledge. Let’s admit what we don’t know and can’t measure.


Jules Evans